This first report lays the groundwork for understanding Scottish society as we emerge from the pandemic, and addresses the following fundamental questions: Is Scotland on the right track? Where do we want to go as a country? And who do we trust to help us get there?

Disillusionment with the UK and the disastrous effects of Brexit are driving a series of high-profile expressions of support for Scotland’s independence.

A survey of over 3,000 people indicates opinions that Scotland will have a referendum, that the spring of 2023 is most popular and that the vote will be "yes". Also that the coalition between SNP and Scottish Greens makes the referendum more likely.

A survey of 200 people who changed from "no" to "yes" showed multiple reasons.  The main ones were:

• The effect of Brexit
• UK government incompetence
• Better Together lied
• Had come to have more belief in Scotland
• Felt NHS was not safe as part of the Union

The paper analyses the support for Scotland's independence and support for Ireland's unification.  The harder the border with EU, the more support in Scotland's independence is indicated. It follows the sentiment toward the EU closely.  In Northern Ireland the support for unification follows religious lines.

This week, Craig Dalzell is joined by Ellen Dalzell to discuss the Demographics of Independence. Ellen has campaigned for several years both for “New Scots” to be included in Scotland’s democracy both through being able to vote – which they now can – but also for them to be better included in data that informs democratic campaigning. They discuss the current weaknesses in the data we have and how that has given rise to misconceptions about the voting intentions of New Scots.

Much has been said about the Yes campaign, much has been written about its vibrancy and excitement, openness and inclusivity. It was planned to be the biggest grassroots campaign in Scotland’s history, it has been said that it brought new people to politics and represented a departure from the type of campaign seen when political parties fight for our vote. Yes was said to have been positive and Better Together was supposed to have been negative.

Country of Birth is a substantial driver of support for independence.  Support for independence is particularly volatile amongst males aged 34-55 but remains relatively stable for other age groups.  Support for independence amongst females is generally rising in all age groups.

Remain voters are far more likely to say they will vote for independence and Leave voters now far more likely to vote against.  

Social grades ABC1 were overwhelmingly likely to vote No.  Social grades C2DE are extremely likely to vote for independence.