What is the effect of Brexit on support for Scottish independence?

The evidence is mixed.  The 60+% who voted to remain in the EU are supposed in the main to support independence in the EU.  There is a proportion of independence supporters who do not wish to re-join the EU.  These two groups seem to cancel each other out.  Until the pandemic, increasing support for independence seemed to increase as the problems of Brexit were revealed.  Since then Brexit has not been the major force for supporting independence.

Brexit and Territorial Preferences: Evidence from Scotland and Northern Ireland

The paper analyses the support for Scotland's independence and support for Ireland's unification.  The harder the border with EU, the more support in Scotland's independence is indicated. It follows the sentiment toward the EU closely.  In Northern Ireland the support for unification follows religious lines.

Type of Resource
Academic Paper
Date Published
Primary Author or Creator
Lesley-Ann Daniels
Additional Author(s) / Creators
Alexander Kuo

Brexit and the Scottish Question

The 2016 Scottish vote for remaining in the EU received no consideration by the UK government for possible special arrangements.  The prospect of a new independence referendum gains credibility as the paper shows the constitutional convention on consultation was considered irrelevant by the UK government.

Type of Resource
Academic Paper
Date Published
Primary Author or Creator
Sionaidh Douglas-Scott
Additional Author(s) / Creators
Queen Mary University of London

Brexit and the inevitability of Scottish Independence

Only independence can remove the democratic deficit.  Scottish independence is the cosmopolitan choice.  There will be some economic damage, uncertainty, and a new currency.  

 

No has, in some ways, a stronger case in the second referendum but a far lower chance of success: it will lose because there will be no-one out there able to tell the No story.

Type of Resource
Assessment report
Date Published
Primary Author or Creator
Paul Cairney
Additional Author(s) / Creators
Centre on Constitutional Change

Scottish independence trading costs calculated

There may be significant economic costs resulting from independence.  However, there is no reason Scotland cannot prosper as other small nations have. This report looks at the cumulative effect over 15 years.

Type of Resource
web page
Date Published
Primary Author or Creator
Douglas Fraser
Additional Author(s) / Creators
BBC

How Brexit shapes people's views on Scottish independence

A review of polls at January 2021 shows increasing support for independence, possibly due to Brexit.

Type of Resource
web page
Date Published
Primary Author or Creator
John Curtice
Additional Author(s) / Creators
BBC

Brexit, nationalism and disintegration in the European Union and the United Kingdom

The Brexit referendum opened up conflict between executive, parliamentary, national and popular sovereignties in the differing nations of the United Kingdom and had a noticeable effect on British disintegration.

Type of Resource
Academic Paper
Primary Author or Creator
Ben Wellings
Additional Author(s) / Creators
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