The paper analyses the support for Scotland's independence and support for Ireland's unification. The harder the border with EU, the more support in Scotland's independence is indicated. It follows the sentiment toward the EU closely. In Northern Ireland the support for unification follows religious lines.
The 2016 Scottish vote for remaining in the EU received no consideration by the UK government for possible special arrangements. The prospect of a new independence referendum gains credibility as the paper shows the constitutional convention on consultation was considered irrelevant by the UK government.
Scottish independence would be 2-3 times more costly than Brexit over 15 years. Rejoining the EU wwll make up part of the difference in trade value. This made headline news for a time. The methodology has been questioned.
Differences of politics in Scotland and England leads to claims that the Scottish people are being governed against their will. This creates a constitutional crisis which has manifested in desires for self-government. Brexit contradicts the 2014 referendum assurances that only by rejecting independence could Scotland stay in the EU.
This thesis looks at independence campaigning in the midst of uncertainty. It looks at how campaigning develops at a time of political uncertainty in the present and for the future.
Only independence can remove the democratic deficit. Scottish independence is the cosmopolitan choice. There will be some economic damage, uncertainty, and a new currency.
No has, in some ways, a stronger case in the second referendum but a far lower chance of success: it will lose because there will be no-one out there able to tell the No story.
Scottish independence is a constitutional project, not an economic one. Fixing who governs you takes precedence over an easy life for supermarkets or civil servants. Brexit has shown that a committed government, with the mandate of a referendum and an appetite for dislocation, can go a long way.
There may be significant economic costs resulting from independence. However, there is no reason Scotland cannot prosper as other small nations have. This report looks at the cumulative effect over 15 years.
A review of polls at January 2021 shows increasing support for independence, possibly due to Brexit.
Independence, then, might be inevitable, but it has to be contemplated with some sense of reality. The reality of Brexit in front of our eyes. Scotland’s freedom from unending Tory rule from London may well be unavoidable. The constitutional position is simply unsustainable. It is intolerable to most of the Scottish people. Can they face another five, 10, 15 years of English Tory rule, even with devolution? Probably not, and they might hope for the best from “global Scotland” as it seizes unnamed exciting new opportunities.