Trading in sterling for a transitional period would mean goods from Scotland will avoid currency exchange issues.  If the UK doesn’t sort its borders with the EU, the resulting fall in the value of sterling will mean that trade with the rest of the UK increases, not decreases. Scotland will be the only nation from which rUK can afford to import. Where else would the rUK get the oil, electricity and food it needs from? It will be cheaper and just as easy to import from Scotland.

There were a number of  mistakes made in negotiating a Brexit arrangement. 
This was imposed on Scotland against its will. It has turned out to be a disaster for key industries.

1. Ignoring the wishes of Scotland and the other devolved nations 

2. Sticking so rigidly to “getting Brexit done” that it made an acceptable trade deal impossible. It was immediately apparent there were serious problems.

3. Underestimating just how big a problem taking Northern Ireland out of the EU would be. 

Scottish independence is a constitutional project, not an economic one. Fixing who governs you takes precedence over an easy life for supermarkets or civil servants. Brexit has shown that a committed government, with the mandate of a referendum and an appetite for dislocation, can go a long way.

There may be significant economic costs resulting from independence.  However, there is no reason Scotland cannot prosper as other small nations have. This report looks at the cumulative effect over 15 years.

An independent Scotland within the EU would be part of the EU’s single market: England and Wales would be outside.  The border checks may be quite significant. Ireland's experience shows it is clearly possible for a small country to succeed economically in a similar situation to that which would confront an independent Scotland within the EU and establishing a new border.

There are indications that the EU would welcome an application from an independent Scotland. Full membership of the EU may take up to a decade to complete. As a new member state, Scotland would probably have to take on the normal obligations, which may include the use of the Euro.  A hard border with England would be the consequence of EU membership.  Even a looser relationship, similar to Norway, with the EU would require a customs border with England.

How a border will be handled and its potential economic impacts need some serious analysis from the Scottish Government. The fact that Scotland’s trade with rUK is three times that with the EU means it looks like the short- term economic impact of a harder border would be negative. 

But some of those negative impacts might be at least partially offset by benefits from migration and free movement of people, and by foreign investment. 

In the early stages of independence an interim agreement will be needed. With full independence achieved, a border of some sort between rUK and Scotland will be needed. If Scotland were to join the EU an hard border will be required.  Upon joining the EU, trade would be more difficult with rUK, but easier with the rest of Europe.

This is the three times a year report on the Scottish economy in an international context.

Presents the Scottish economy from an international business and investment perspective.

This gives the Scottish economic statistics from an international investment point of view.

The economy of Scotland had an estimated GDP of $205 billion in 2020. This includes oil and gas extraction in Scottish waters.  Scotland's economy has been closely aligned with the economy of the rest of the UK) and England has been its main trading partner. In 2017, Scotland's exports totalled £81.4 billion, of which £48.9 billion (60%) was with rUK, £14.9 billion with the EU, and £17.6 billion with other parts of the world.

Scotland is economically viable as it has natural resources, a skilled population, strong trading relations, excellent industrial sectors and products, and a well developed financial sector.

, we have drawn together leading experts to examine the key issues, opportunities and challenges surrounding the prospect of independence. Much has changed since the 2014 referendum – most notably, the UK’s decision to leave the European Union. By providing factual information and impartial analysis, we hope that the book can support citizens to engage in debates and make up their own minds about Scotland’s future.