― We have identified no examples of low-carbon heating being taken up on a large scale without government assistance.
― The primary barrier to the roll-out of low carbon heat is financial. Efficient schemes like renewably powered district heating will have to be government financed.
― Without significant government planning, individual households are likely to decarbonise their heat using heat pumps which, while an improvement over fossil fuels, have significant downsides – not least, their collective impact on the electrical grid.
― Biofuels like biopropane or biokerosene may play a significant role in rural heating where they can seamlessly replace off-grid heating without the need to install new infrastructure.
― However we remain cautious about the roll-out of hydrogen which will require almost as much new infrastructure as district heating, will deliver less good outcomes and will encourage the use of “blue” hydrogen derived from fossil fuels as much as it will encourage “green” hydrogen from renewable sources.